Omdia, a leading research firm, has projected that Nintendo will sell 14.7 million units of its new Switch 2 console in its first year, easily surpassing the initial sales of the original Switch when it debuted eight years ago. This optimistic outlook underscores the high expectations analysts have for the next-generation portable device, which is set to launch on June 5 at a suggested retail price of $450.
Enhanced Features with Strategic Focus on Games
The Switch 2 will feature several notable upgrades over its predecessor, including a higher resolution display, a larger 7.9-inch screen, and increased memory. While its technical specifications may not surpass those of its competitors, such as Valve’s OLED Steam Deck or larger consoles that aren’t portable, the Switch 2 offers a compelling library of exclusive games. Nintendo’s strategy has always focused less on competing with hardware specs and more on delivering an unparalleled gaming experience, and this continues with the Switch 2.
Joost van Dreunen, CEO of Aldora, a market research firm, expressed confidence in Nintendo’s approach, noting, “The technical improvements justify the $450 price point.” Analysts have long highlighted Nintendo’s resistance to focusing on sheer hardware power, with the company instead relying on its internally developed games, which are exclusive to its consoles. This strategy has proven successful, with the original Switch selling more than 150 million units.
High Expectations and Investor Optimism
Investors are clearly optimistic about the success of the Switch 2, as evidenced by a 12% increase in Nintendo’s shares this year. The promise of new titles from well-loved franchises such as Mario Kart, Kirby, and Donkey Kong is generating excitement. Mario Kart World, in particular, is expected to be a standout game, especially considering that its predecessor, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, was owned by half of all original Switch owners.
Additionally, Nintendo is revisiting its iconic The Legend of Zelda series with updates to Breath of the Wild and Tears of the Kingdom, ensuring that fans of the franchise will have compelling content from day one.
The Handheld Gaming Landscape
Since the launch of the first Switch in 2017, competitors like Valve, Asustek, and Lenovo Group have released portable gaming devices priced between $400 and $800. Despite this increased competition, Nintendo has remained the leader in the handheld gaming market, with competitors collectively selling approximately 6 million units, according to data from IDC.
While the Switch 2 faces some competition, it remains uniquely positioned due to its exclusive game library and its ability to serve as a portable, all-in-one gaming device. With major franchises consistently driving sales, Nintendo is on track to maintain its dominance in the gaming space.
Looking Ahead
Despite the strong outlook for 2025, some fans have expressed disappointment that the Switch 2’s launch lineup didn’t include updates on certain fan-favorite franchises, such as Animal Crossing, Super Smash Bros., and Mario. However, analysts like James McWhirter of Omdia remain confident that Nintendo will remain successful, even if it faces challenges in sustaining momentum after the initial launch. As McWhirter notes, “For 2025, Nintendo is fine. The question is whether Nintendo will be able to release a big blockbuster game every year after that.”
With a compelling strategy centered around exclusive titles and its strong track record in the handheld gaming market, the Switch 2 is set to build on the success of its predecessor, continuing Nintendo’s legacy as a leader in gaming innovation.